Abstract
This study is motivated by the phenomenon of fluctuations in the cost of organising the Hajj pilgrimage (BPIH) in Indonesia, which tends to increase every year. In the macroeconomic context, there are many variables that can influence BPIH, such as inflation, interest rates, national economic growth, the exchange rate of the rupiah against foreign currencies, world oil prices, world gold prices, government subsidies, etc. In this study, the researcher examines the influence of inflation, exchange rates, global oil prices, and government policy subsidies on the Hajj pilgrimage costs (BPIH). This is a quantitative study using time series data over a 30-year period, with annual data samples from 1995 to 2024. The basic analysis used in this study is VAR/VECM using the E-Views 13 testing tool. The data sources were obtained from monthly reports on the official website of Bank Indonesia (BI), the World Bank, the Ministry of Religious Affairs website, oilprice.com, etc. The results of this study indicate that the inflation variable has a short-term effect on BPIH, while in the long term it has no effect. Meanwhile, the exchange rate variable has an impact on BPIH in both the short and long term. Additionally, the global oil price variable has an impact on BPIH in the long term, while it does not have an impact in the short term. As for the government subsidy policy variable, it has an impact on BPIH in the short term, while it does not have an impact in the long term.
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