Evaluating the Contribution of the Halal Industry to Indonesia's Economic Growth: The Moderating Effect of Halal Certification
Abstract
The halal industry is a strategic sector with considerable potential to drive Indonesia’s economic growth, as reflected in its third-place ranking in the Global Islamic Economy Indicator (GIEI) 2025. However, the increasing contribution of the halal industry has not fully aligned with fluctuations in national economic growth, highlighting the need for further analysis of the role of halal certification as a key instrument in strengthening economic competitiveness. This study aims to examine the influence of the halal industry and the role of halal certification on Indonesia’s economic growth during the 2020–2024 period. A quantitative approach was employed using multiple linear regression (OLS) with time series data from 2020 to 2024, obtained from SGIER, BPJPH, LPPOM MUI, and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The findings reveal that halal food and beverages as well as halal pharmaceuticals and cosmetics have a negative impact on economic growth. Conversely, Muslim fashion, halal tourism, and halal media and recreation positively affect economic growth. Furthermore, halal certification exerts a negative moderating effect by weakening the relationship between the halal food and beverage industry and economic growth, while it provides a positive moderating effect by strengthening the relationship between halal pharmaceuticals and cosmetics, Muslim fashion, halal tourism, and halal media and recreation with economic growth.
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