Analysis Of The Effect Of Inflation, Exchange Rate, And Economic Growth On Retail Sukuk Series SR-015

Autor(s): Silvia Vitari Anam, Riskayanto Riskayanto
DOI: 10.35760/ugefic.v8i1.174

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of inflation, exchange rates, and gross domestic product on the yield of SR-015 retail sukuk. This study was conducted in order to find a solution to the problem of rising inflation, which can reduce the real value of the SR-015 series yield. In addition, fluctuations in the exchange rate against the US Dollar also affect investor sentiment, causing demand for retail sukuk to decline, which has an impact on the secondary market. When economic growth slows down, investor confidence in retail sukuk may weaken, causing sukuk yields in the secondary market to rise as sukuk prices decline. This research is quantitative in nature, employing VAR/VECM analysis methods. The data type used is time series data from September 2021 to September 2024. The data sources are obtained from monthly statistical reports on the official website of Bank Indonesia and the Directorate General of Financing and Risk Management (DJPPR) of the Ministry of Finance. The results of the analysis show that in the short term, there is no significant influence of the three variables on the yield of the SR-015 Retail Sukuk series. However, in the long term, the inflation and gross domestic product variables show a significant influence, while exchange rate does not have a significant influence. These findings have important implications for investors and policymakers in understanding the dynamics of the Sukuk market and its impact on macroeconomic conditions.

 

Keywords

Economic Growth, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Sukuk Yield, VAR/VECM.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.35760/ugefic.v8i1.174

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